Presentation

EUPD Group: Europe’s PV Market Shifts to Intelligent Integration and Storage

Markus A.W. Hoehner of EUPD Group presented at the China-EU Solar & Energy Storage Industries Dialogue 2025 in Duesseldorf, outlining Europe's transition in PV and energy storage. He argued that the market is moving from incentive-driven deployment to intelligent integration, driven by policy, economic factors, and the need for energy independence and grid resilience.

Event
China-EU Solar & Energy Storage Industries Dialogue 2025
Market
Europe
Segment
C&I, Residential
Technology
Photovoltaics, Storage
Format
Presentation
Interviewer · EUPD Group
Markus A.W. Hoehner
CEO & Founder · EUPD Group
Guest · EUPD Group
Markus A.W. Hoehner
CEO & Founder · EUPD Group
Filmed ·Duesseldorf·Runtime 31:16Presentation ·
PresentationChina-EU Solar & Energy Storage Industries Dialogue 2025 · Duesseldorf
31:16
Filmed on site · No editorial direction beyond question set · Captions auto-generated, reviewed by EUPD Research

Key takeaways

4 points · 31:16 video
  1. Shift to Intelligent Integration
    Europe's PV market is transitioning from simply maximizing installations to prioritizing intelligent, integrated systems that effectively incorporate energy storage for grid resilience and energy independence.
  2. Policy-Driven Market Expansion
    EU initiatives like the Green Deal and REPowerEU are accelerating solar and storage adoption through mandates for new buildings, simplified permitting, and support for community-based energy models.
  3. Diverse Segment Drivers
    Residential PV and storage are primarily driven by high retail electricity prices and the desire for energy independence, while the C&I sector is motivated by corporate decarbonization goals, ESG commitments, and power purchase agreements.
  4. Navigating Market Barriers
    Key challenges include reduced or expiring incentives, grid constraints, high upfront investment costs, and administrative complexities, necessitating data-driven market intelligence to identify profitable segments and allocate resources strategically.

The Evolving European Energy Landscape

The global PV market continues to be dominated by China, which installed more PV capacity in recent years than the rest of the world combined. Europe, while a mature market, remains strategically critical, with 72 GW deployed globally (03:25). The focus in Europe is shifting from merely increasing PV capacity to intelligently integrating it with energy storage solutions to enhance grid stability and energy independence. European policies, notably the REPowerEU plan and the European Green Deal, are central to this transition. These frameworks accelerate national reforms, including faster permitting, reduced bureaucracy, and mandatory solar readiness in new buildings (05:42). The overarching goal remains climate neutrality by 2050, with significant greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for 2030 and 2040 (07:06). These policies are mobilizing substantial funds and creating a complex, yet opportunity-rich, regulatory environment for solar and storage deployment.

"Europe transitioning from build as much PV as possible into make PV work intelligently and integratedly." Hoehner · 04:32

Market Dynamics: Drivers and Barriers in Residential and C&I Segments

In the residential sector, high retail electricity prices and volatility, particularly since 2022, have made self-generation increasingly attractive, shortening payback periods and strengthening the economic case for rooftop PV (11:53). Homeowners are also driven by a desire for energy independence from utilities and geopolitical shocks (12:26). Supportive policy frameworks, such as zero VAT in some countries and simplified permitting, continue to bolster residential adoption (12:49). However, barriers include reduced or phased-out incentives, grid constraints limiting surplus generation, high upfront investment costs, and regulatory fragmentation (15:31). For the Commercial & Industrial (C&I) segment, drivers include high electricity price volatility, corporate decarbonization goals, and ESG commitments (21:32). Power purchase agreements (PPAs) and self-consumption models offer significant opportunities, particularly for larger SMEs facing tough economic conditions (22:19). Grid constraints also foster on-site generation due to attractive internal rates of return (IRRs) (22:33). C&I faces its own set of barriers, such as complex permitting processes, high capital expenditure, regulatory uncertainty, and limitations posed by existing roof suitability and structural constraints (22:45). Effective navigation requires data-driven intelligence to adapt to diverse market dynamics across Europe (17:39).

"The ratio in between factory ramping investments and go-to-market strategies communication, relationship-building processes is not in balance." Hoehner · 14:34

Two questions on the stand

Chapters · click to jump
00:00
Introduction and Global PV & Storage Context
The presentation begins with an overview of the global PV and storage landscape, discussing market shifts, policy impacts, and the specific opportunity for Europe amidst global market developments.
05:00
Europe's Position and Strategic Shift
This section analyzes Europe's position in global PV additions, emphasizing its strategic importance and the transition towards intelligent and integrated PV solutions rather than just volume deployment.
07:27
European Policies Driving Solar and Storage
An overview of key EU policies such as REPowerEU and the European Green Deal is provided, highlighting their role in accelerating the energy transition, streamlining processes, and mobilizing funds towards climate neutrality targets.
13:57
Key Policy Themes for 2025
Specific policy themes for 2025 are detailed, including solar mandates for various building types, simplified permitting for smaller systems, support for energy communities, and incentives for battery storage.
17:38
Drivers of Residential PV in Europe
Factors driving residential PV adoption are examined, including high electricity prices, the desire for energy independence, supportive policy frameworks, and falling system costs.
25:26
Barriers to Residential PV in Europe
This segment identifies challenges hindering residential PV growth, such as reduced or phased-out incentives, grid constraints, high upfront investment costs, and administrative and regulatory complexities.
28:59
Drivers of Residential Storage in Europe
Factors promoting residential energy storage are discussed, including various incentives and subsidies, grid limitations impacting reliability, declining ESS costs, and synergy with PV electrification.

Interview transcript

Auto-generated · reviewed · ~3 min read
Uh, thank you very much again, Daniel, and, thank you very much for, for these deep insights in the Chinese, mainland market and developments. Um, let's have a look, into Europe now, in PV and energy storage. What are the trends? What's going on, and what's the outlook? Um, first of all, I would like to, to share, where, where, where we are, what is the current status in the global PV and storage landscape, what policy and regulatory forces are shaping the market, and what are the core drivers and barriers today, but also what is the opportunity and what is, the threat? Um, and then I would like to show you three countries. Uh, Eu-Europe is very different. Um, when we look into all the EU plus countries and look into residential, small commercial, large commercial, small industrial, large industrial and utility segments, it is a wide range of different regulations, so it is a necessity to access, and build, the right partnerships, the right relat-relationships, with the right intermediaries, with the right end customers, which is quite tricky. Um, but it is a great opportunity to learn from each other and not to fall back into old, wrong mechanisms. I think everybody who's familiar with the industry was observing the price war, for example. Too much capacity ramped. Yeah, we call it the first tsunami. Then we saw, the creepy guy in the United States shutting down the market. Another tsunami. A tsunami is very powerful. There is a lot of energy in a tsunami. It can be destructive, but we can convert it in the right direction, and we have to, not to suffer and to build a sustainable industry, also economically sustainable industry. The next tsunami is, there is a lot of going on in India, another two hundred gig of module ramp... capacity ramping. And obviously, and we just saw it, there is a downturn in the Chinese market. China was installing more in all, all over the last years than the whole world together. Obviously, they have to integrate their deployed PV systems. They will enhance in adding storage, ES, on all levels of the grid, and this will lead to another scale and to another opportunity, obviously for Europe. Europe impacted... Europe's economy is, impacted. We need a secure, reliable, but also cheap energy translation to stay, competitive. So, let's, let's a little bit, look in the global context. Twenty-four, four hundred, fifty-three, gigawatts, deployed globally, two hundred seventy-seven in China, and then next big market, Europe, seventy-two, US, thirty-six, India, twenty-five. So, the global PV additions is still dominated by China. EU is mature but strategically critical as one, and storage is emerging as a strategic backbone. So where does Europe stand in the global PV and storage landscape? What we are seeing is, in the PV sector, a steady growth when you look in the annual installed PV capacities in Europe. Um, a shifting from incentive driven to economically optimized deployments. In storage, we see this lack. We will see big growth in the future in both areas, China and Europe, and it is a really rapid ramp up as it is mo-moving from complementary into core system component. Europe transitioning from build as much PV as possible into make PV work intel-intelligently and integratedly. Um, let's have a quick look at the European policies driving solar and storage. Uh, we see a continued EU support for expanding solar PV and small scale battery storage. A push for distributed energy systems. Basically featuring all segments, rooftop, commercial sites, communities, to strengthen energy, independence, and grid resilience. Um, we see a global momentum in major markets like, Germany, Italy and Greece, driven by updated regulations and incentive schemes. Um, we are already heard that the REPowerEU and the European Green Deal, are accelerating national reforms, including faster permitting, less bureaucracy, and mandatory solar readiness in new buildings. Especially focusing, on major sectors like energy, transportation, construct-construction, and agriculture.A few words, regarding the European, Green Deal, remains the EU central framework for the energy transition. The deal supports rapid scale-up of distributed solar and storage by aligning climate, energy, and social goals with funding and legi-legi-legislation. So the, the target is here clear and set also despite some right-wing tendencies we are observing in Europe, instrumentalizing also in lobby campaigns, to, to, to exclude, China out of the market. Uh, we have to be very careful here. That's why transparency, no backdoor, cybersecurity, and these topics are really, really a major issue to pro- outperform, China's and Europe's energy transition. So EU still will be targeting to be climate neutral by twenty-fifty. Um, by twenty-thirty, fifty percent, fifty-five percent less than based on nineteen ninety benchmarks, reducing, the greenhouse emissions. By twenty-forty, ninety percent, and by twenty-fifty we will reach that target. So this is mobilizing funds. The deal is mobilizing funds in the form of various... And this makes it a bit complicated. Uh, that's why our, our key, subscription is, the global energy transition metrics. Now, it is quite tri-tricky and nitty-gritty to follow all of that, not historically, but also to take advantage of future, changes. Our key solar policies hierarchy within the Gre- Green Deal when we break it down and structure it a little bit, so we have the Clean Energy for All Europeans package, leading to r- the Renewable Energy Directive III, Energy Performance of Building Directive, and this is leading to the EU solar, standard. Um, but, we see as well, other regulations helping and supporting the transition. The REPowerEU plan, just transition mechanisms, EU Solar Energy Strategy, and Horizon Europe, as well as European Investment Bank incentives are accelerating the transformation. So distributed solar, and storage is key and, let's have a look at the key themes in the twenty twenty-five policy landscape. Um, first of all, the solar mandates in buildings. Revised Energy Performance of Building Directive makes solar PV mandatory on new and renovated public, commercial, and multi-unit residential buildings. Yeah, when we look into Belgium, for example, from first of January, it is mandatory to install solar on the rooftop if you consume more than one terawatt hour of electricity. Um, but also simplified permitting for smaller systems. RED III requires member states to streamline permitting for rooftop solar installations with systems under fifty kilowatt peak, benefiting from accelerated procedures or positive silence rules in many countries, yeah. So if the authorities are saying nothing, it is approved. Um, energy communities and collective self-consumption is a next driver. So national frameworks now enable shared solar ownership, simplified grid access, and financial support for community, community-based prosumer models. The European Solar Standard, deployment harmonize technical and safety rules for rooftop PV systems while supporting installer certification, customer trust, and cross-border growth. Battery storage supports growth. Countries like Germany, Italy, and Austria offer grants, tax breaks, or time and use incentives for residential and commercial scale battery systems, thus expecting the role of behind the meter storage and grid balance. Last but not least, inclusive solar accev- access. Targeted rooftop solar and storage programs for low income households and energy poor regions co-financed by the national governments such as the Just Transition Funds. So, now I would like to share with you, in the residential and in the C&I market, the drivers and the barriers. We have to be very aware of these market mecha-mechanisms to adjust our relationship buildings amongst intermediaries. So, our EU PD dat, for example, we have hundreds of thousands of intermediaries, of wholesalers, of installers, of EPCs in our databases. As you know, we run a lot of research, through these stakeholder groups to understand the dynamics of the single segments and the single markets of the single, of the brands as well. Um, w-what is doing good, what is doing not that good, so we, we can improve jointly. Um, so let's start with residential, PV in Europe and the drivers. First of all, high retail electricity prices and volatility. Um, rising household ele-electricity costs, especially twenty-two after the invasion in the Ukraine from RussiaUm, make self gen-generation increasingly attractive, shortening payback periods for the end customers, and strengthening the economic case for rooftop PV. The desire for energy independence and self-consumption. There is a lot of psychology in the market. Homeowners seek autonomy from utilities and geopolitical energy shocks. Positioning PV as a long-term security investment. Supportive policy frameworks and legal incentives. So, we, we, we, we in some countries we have, zero, VAT, on, installing PV in, residential segments. Simplified permitting and historical feed-in tariffs continue to support residential adoption even as direct subsidies decline. And we want this transformation. Technological as-accessibility and falling system cost. Everybody knows we are facing declining module prices. We faced it already, and I mentioned the tsunami, so I think we must collaborate more, yeah, not to kickstart the next price war, but to invest more into downstream relationship management. Um, the Chinese industry has to tran... Th-there was so much transformation in the past decades, right? Um, they achieved being the most efficient top quality manufacturers globally, but the next transition means more empathy, more targeting, more understanding for all these nitty-gritty target groups. How are we capable to transform that into communication, into relationship management, into end customer needs, serving the installers and EPCs in this transforming market? This is key, and this will separate those who will survive the shakeout and who will not. Yeah. The ratio in between factory ramping investments and go-to-market strategies com-communication, relationship-building processes is not in balance. So we have to look at that and improve that to avoid more price war. Nevertheless, it is a big, on the other side, opportunity for other European investors, not just residential C&I as well. We are facing highest IRRs. We are facing the best opportunity for a low-cost energy transition. Climate awareness and ESG responsibility. PV adoption continues to be driven by sustainability values, social responsibility and carbon reduction awareness among-amongst homeowners. Um, let's have a quick look in the barriers of residential PV in Europe. Um, reduced or phased out incentives, the decline of feed-in tariffs and the net metering schemes in several countries weakens immediately immediate, financial attractiveness. Yeah, so we, there is also a need to, to communicate jointly, positively, because, when we, w-when we look at the boil over running times of the assets, it's, it's obviously not a problem. Grid constraints and feed-in limitations. Local grid con-congestion and feed-in limitations reduce the el-ability of households to monetize surplus generation. High upfront investment costs. Despite lower system prices, initial capital requirements remain a hurdle for many households without financing support. When the economy is bad, there, bad, there is less budget, and we have to be aware that PV and storage is in a com-competitive situation, maybe even with heat pump charging infrastructure, EVs, the whole sectoral coupling investments the households are facing. But the good message is obviously that, that the PV and storage system is the core of this system. Um, administrative complexity and regulation, regulatory, fragmentation. Inconsistent national and municipal procedures create uncertainty and slow down installations and sometimes longer payback expectations. As subsidies decrease, payback periods extend, causing hesitation in more price sensitive customer segments. And we have to be aware as well that there have been pull fo-pull, pull forward effects, yeah? So a lot of, a lot of companies, some fear-driven, some with the big pockets, have already in-invested into the system. And that's interesting to see also in which of these segments, in which of these European markets premium systems or, standard systems are, are shifting from, from here to there. So data-driven intelligence is key. You have to see and observe what is going on in the next phase of the market, in which segment, in which country across Europe to grab the profits here and to invest them there. That's, intelligent management. Um, let's look at the drivers of residential storage, in Europe. So we, we see the incentives and subsidies. Many European countries offer support schemes for residential ES, including tax rebates, grants, and VAT.Um, exemptions, lowering upfront cost and boosting adoption. Impact of China, of US China tariffs on European bat-battery market. Uh, in these tsunamis are interacting, obviously. Grid limitations and, reliability. Um, declining ESS cost and PV electrification, synergy. Market growth is expected to resume definitely in '27, driven by expanding residential PV, massive electrification of European homes. So month by month, more EVs in the grid, vehicle to grid, coming soon and so on. Um, what are the barriers of residential ESS, in Europe? You see, I'm speeding up a little bit. I got a sign that I have just ten more minutes, and I-- we, we, I want to share a few, few more slides, with you guys. Uh, so, obviously in the perception, and we have to play with the figures that are allocated on the chess, on the, on the chess field, right? Uh, so there are, there are tendencies in the market to say we-- there is too much dependence on Chinese supply chains. Everybody knows there is no alternative, but they are blaming it. So there are re-resilience on Chinese supply chains and vulnerability to geopolitical tensions, and there, there is also a lot of media that, that, that, that are, that are monitoring the situation with Taiwan, for example, or even the reaction on, the Chinese, the Japanese prime minister a few, two, two, three weeks ago. So that could slow down ESS deployment and, and we have to arrange everything in that, these fears are not turning into reality. Expiring subsidies. Um, installation declined due to expiring mon-- major government subsidies in key markets and falling energy prices, reducing immediate con-consumer urgency. Unbalanced supply and demand. Unbalanced supply and demand driven by renewable growth and limited flexibility challenge ESS profitability and system integration. The lack of European ESS manufacturing, I think it's not a problem. I think when we look at the market share or how the market share shifts, we have, to face, realities. We see these debates in the PV segment as well. That's why we say let's build the bridge and collaborate, instead of ex-ex-excluding, you know. By game, game theory, it's always the worst, allocation, when there is no collaboration. Uh, finan-financing asse-asse-assess to, access to, capi-capital might be another barrier. Um, let me run you quickly, through the C&I, segment. Drivers of, PV, C&I PV in Europe, is the high, definitely the high electricity price volatility and rising grid charges. Um, the corporate decarbonization and ESG commitments. Just last week, in the framework of our, ESG transparency award ceremonies, in the framework of our sustainability weeks last week, we saw so much commitment from the industrial players across Europe to continue their decarbonization and net zero strategies, investing more and more passionately and embedded in their strategies into PV and storage. Uh, power purchase agreements and, self-consumption models. Yeah, even cross-border PPAs amongst larger SMEs is a great, opportunity for C&I customers across Europe facing tough economy, eco-economies. Um, grid constraints fostering on-site generation, and attractive IRRs and economies of scale, obviously. Um, the barriers are quite complex, permitting and planning processes, C&I customers are facing. So we need more support from the commission, from Europe to the local governments. Um, and as a industry, we can also help them to ask for deregulation. High upfront capital expenditure, regulatory uncertainty and polic-policy instability. Limited roof suitability and structural constraints. Yeah, so some roofs are not constructed, in the past to add PV. So, it's about static, statical assessment and, helping the industry, to, also deploy, lighter systems. Operational disruption, concerns. Um, this is, definite-definitely this fear, this multi-crisis management we are observing ev-everywhere, is a barrier. Uh, a lot of drivers, obviously in the C&I segment as well. Um, so many new business cases we are observing, ESS as a service, demand charge mitigation and peak shaving business models. There is a high demand for that. That's why we saw the forecast of this exponential growth, ESS growth across Europe. On-site renewables, ESS optimizationWholesale retail price volatility and tariff exposure. Corporate decarbonization, not because it's a must, because they want it, it's embedded in their strategies. And flexibility and value stack revenue streams, are the drivers in the EES. And we will share the presentations, I think, with everybody of you. So sorry for not diving too deep, facing the time, constraints. Um, last but not least, the barriers of C&I EES in Europe, fragmented rules and slow market access, revenue uncertainty. That's n-not everywhere. The education, we, we, we have aggregated in this room, for example. Grid connection bottlenecks, high upfront costs, e-even in a crisis, this is negatively cor-correlating. Supply chain dependence and procurement, risk. Um, I think, I would like, I would like to share three markets with you. Obviously, we don't have the time to dive too deep. We can discuss later or set up follow-up, meetings. Mm. And we will see more numbers from my, my dear co-colleagues, Ali especially, in the next, upcoming, presentations. But at the glance, we see, the PV, deployment, and we see the storage deployment and the storage, forecast. Extremely interesting is the tierization of markets. Yeah. So these segments in all these European markets are quite tricky to follow. Um, so what we are doing jointly, with you guys is we are, figuring out, fifteen KPIs, and one of them is the net benefit. So when you deduct the tariff in the segment from the LCOEs, with or without storage, you see where's the meat on the bone. Yeah. So installer, EPC, distributor, and manufacturer, have a not... enough, enough margin to explore other segments across Europe. Uh, but there are fourteen other KPIs to rank these segments all across Europe and to develop a keen understanding where to allocate twenty-six, budgets. So, in Germany, we, we are still facing the zero VAT and tax exemption keep, PV highly attractive. Falling fiat, f-uh, feed-in tariff make self-consumption and storage the default model. Retrofits surge as older systems lose feed-in tariff. Just until twenty thirty, in Germany, seven hundred fifty residential installations, drop-- drop out of the, out of the feed-in tariff regime. So they will all repower, they will all enlarge the system, they will all add a storage. So retrofits surge as older systems lose fiat, feed-in tariff. A new charged supply roles, rules open multi-family PV and battery adoption. In the C&I segment, same. Zero VAT, for SMEs and thirty percent super depreciation boosts ROI for new PV. EG reform enable multi-use storage and faster permitting. Feed-in tariff suspension at negative prices make storage key to revenue stability. And PV and EES driven by ESG and resilience and, innovation, tenders. So I think we are not diving into these super interesting other two markets, Poland and, the Netherlands, but you, you see the deployment of EES, the forecast twenty-six to twenty-nine. It is, it is really, off taking in Poland, but also, in the Netherlands. My colleagues and me, we are, we are very happy to, to share, that, data to have a deeper look and to discuss with you guys, where to allocate, resources. Just give me a last minute, to, update you on the EUPD group, company structure. Mm. So we are grabbing a lot of data since twenty-five years. EUPD, that is the most profound database with all the distributors, intermediaries, EPCs and, installers. We are running a lot of inwo- awards. We are, we are really appreciating the downstream players to share data with us and to help them to grow regionally. Um, obviously a lot of consulting services, a lot of pieces of research published and apprecia-appreciating manufacturers' success also with all these awards and certifications. Uh, let me just mention two. The Solar Prosumer Award is helping installers and EPCs, because it is based on end customer buying recommendation. Yeah. So we just finished another survey with twenty-eight thousand buying recommendations in Germany. So this is generating trust when another prosumer is happy with the system and recommending the system. And everybody knows, the Top Brand Awards, where installers are recommending products and brands to other installers. Yeah. So these installer segments all across Europe, after this pull forward effect from the war, the Ukraine war, they are under stress. They, they, they write ten times more offerings compared to two years ago. So, I think you have to empa-empathically understand these intermediaries, your friends, your partners, and helping them approaching their customers in the most easiest way, supporting them, collaborating, with them. Um, yeah. Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, for sharing your time with me. See you later. Thank you.
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Frequently asked questions

The European Green Deal and REPowerEU plan are central policy drivers, accelerating national reforms like faster permitting, reduced bureaucracy, and mandatory solar readiness for new buildings. These initiatives aim to expand solar PV and small-scale battery storage, strengthening energy independence and grid resilience across the EU.

The residential PV market is shifting from being primarily incentive-driven to economically optimized, with a strong focus on self-consumption due to high retail electricity prices. While traditional feed-in tariffs are declining, simplified permitting and zero VAT in some regions still support adoption, positioning PV as a long-term security investment for homeowners seeking energy autonomy.

C&I customers encounter significant challenges, including complex permitting and planning processes, high upfront capital expenditure, and regulatory uncertainty. Additionally, limited roof suitability due to structural constraints and concerns about operational disruptions act as barriers, requiring more support from commissions and industry deregulation efforts.

Battery storage is emerging as a strategic backbone, rapidly moving from a complementary technology to a core system component. It is crucial for intelligently integrating PV, balancing the grid, and supporting the massive electrification of European homes, including the anticipated growth of EVs and vehicle-to-grid technologies.

Navigating the diverse European energy market requires data-driven intelligence to observe market shifts, identify opportunities in specific segments and countries, and strategically allocate resources. Understanding regional KPIs, fostering strong downstream relationships with intermediaries like installers and EPCs, and adapting communication and go-to-market strategies are key to success.